Predicting and preparing for peaks
Genpact built epidemiological models to provide weekly forecasts of when COVID-19 cases would peak for the company's locations around the world. The model also helped business functions understand the impact of Coronavirus on its employees, overall plant operations, supply chain, sales, and the bottom line.
Our rapid analytics response pods created the solution. Analytics teams with multidisciplinary skills – data engineering, data visualization, data science, business analysis, and industry expertise – worked on a hyper-agile delivery model with 24–48-hour sprint cycles.
Inputs for the prediction model included population density, dates when restrictions began, the mobility of people in the area, lifestyle factors such as socioeconomic status, education, and access to healthcare, and the manufacturer's own data on employees' symptoms and past medical history. This allowed us to pinpoint the most at-risk people, so the manufacturer could adapt working conditions and provide advice and support.
Working with the chief analytics officer, chief medical officer, epidemiologists, and senior data scientists, we refresh the models weekly. By sharing the insights with global operational risk officer, chief plant officers, and heads of HR and supply chain, the models help the company determine:
- Whether a plant should remain open
- When and how production would be impacted
- If specific roles or number of people should stay at home
- How to best modify shift times and patterns
The models also help with demand sensing. Though the need for ventilators skyrocketed, the demand for devices used in elective surgeries dropped. We are now combining external data on COVID-19 with internal data, like historical sales and revenue trends, inventory levels, manufacturing capacity, and orders, and applying data science and modeling to perform sales and operational planning.
Insights from the analytics help the company determine:
- Surges in elective surgeries
- The level of demand
- How plant operations and sales teams should respond to the ramp-up
- How to phase employees in back safely