Overcoming holiday supply chain complexities

Suppliers who view this year's holiday season as a short-term challenge may manage immediate disruptions. But their long-term outlook will suffer without strategic adjustments.

This holiday season brings unique challenges, where tariffs, de minimis challenges, and supply chain strategies will redefine how we shop and ship.

Despite substantial efforts from suppliers to pull forward cargo shipments to avoid countless tariffs, recent reports suggest¹ there will officially be a peak holiday season again this year. But it's not business as usual. In fact, it's far from it.

Tariffs and economic shifts are creating a new landscape for shoppers and shippers, with one analysis² from the Pricing Lab showing a roughly 5% increase in retail prices compared with pre-tariff trends. Here's what shippers need to know to navigate the next few months and capitalize on the changes.

Tariffs aren't new to suppliers. But today, these are actively reshaping global trade dynamics, adding pressure to every link in the supply chain.

One way suppliers have adapted this year is by moving to supply chain managed services, which provide access to infrastructure without requiring a big upfront investment. With the peak season quickly approaching, understanding how your partners are impacted by tariffs, where visibility is needed, and how tariffs are even influencing shopping habits will be key for suppliers and retailers alike.

As US tariffs cause shifts in supply chains, the global manufacturing scene is also rapidly changing. Recent purchasing indexes³ found a lag in demand among goods producers in South Korea and Taiwan, while Vietnam and Thailand picked up new orders. If this shift continues over the next 12 months, there's another piece of the puzzle for suppliers to figure out.

If proposed changes to the de minimus exemption move forward, ending the current $800 duty-free import threshold, it would significantly affect companies that ship small packages. Meaning? Increased duties, potential shipment abandonment, and customs delays.

Large ecommerce platforms that rely heavily on cross-border small-package shipments could be significantly affected. Without exemption, shippers will be forced to either absorb duties or abandon some shipments due to the economics. Add in additional customs delays, compliance costs, and unfamiliar paperwork, and this spells trouble for the holiday season.

During the peak season, these regulatory changes can create huge bottlenecks. A possible solution would be to experiment with bundling together small shipments to limit the duties shippers must pay.

Inventory shortages and rising costs on cross-border goods have already become a major issue. They'll only be exacerbated by the spike in demand that comes with the holiday season. In cases where the businesses pass the cost along to consumers, we can expect to see a huge impact on total holiday spending and the number of items purchased.

Many companies are already prioritizing supply chain agility and decision-making ability over pure cost efficiency, causing a major shift in global trade patterns. Businesses that have yet to begin thinking this way increase the risk of volatile events impacting their operations.

Every holiday season is followed by a flurry of returns. For the most part, suppliers and retailers have been able to manage the reverse logistics portion of the holiday season with all its challenges. But now that small packages cannot be returned in a financially viable manner – due to the end of the de minimis exemption – there's a big problem.

To read the rest of the original article, authored by Jeffrey Trino, our supply chain business leader, visit Supply & Demand Chain Executive.

Sources:

^₁J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

^₂Alex Durante, Trump Tariffs Are Raising Prices for Consumers, Latest Evidence Shows

³Kimberley Kao, Tariff-Driven Shifts Continue to Shape Asia’s Manufacturing Activity